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Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland holds a slight 43 – 38 percent lead over Republican challenger John Kasich, statistically unchanged from 44 – 38 percent in April, and 43 – 38 percent in March, at least partly because Kasich remains unknown to half of Ohio voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released in June.
Ohio voters say 45 – 35 percent they would like Ohio to pass an immigration law similar to the law in Arizona, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds.
In the Governor's race, Strickland leads among Democrats 81 – 4 percent and among independents 40 – 37 percent, while Kasich leads among Republicans 81 – 6 percent.
Despite Strickland's lead in the horse race, voters disapprove 54 – 33 percent of his handling of the economy and give him a 52 – 31 percent failing grade on handling the state budget. Voters say 48 – 31 percent that the Governor has not kept campaign promises. These are Strickland's lowest scores on all three questions.
"Incumbents generally start a campaign with a name recognition edge and that is certainly the case in the Governor's race. Sometimes as the challenger becomes better known the race narrows. That has yet to happen in this case, although the share of voters who do not know enough about Kasich to form an opinion is at 52 percent, down from 62 percent April 29," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Kasich still has four months until Election Day and Strickland's other numbers show his potential vulnerability, but at this point the Governor remains ahead despite the anti-incumbency wave sweeping the country."
"The good news for Strickland is that he is ahead. Nevertheless, when an incumbent governor is getting less than 45 percent of the vote four months out, it should make him concerned," Brown added.
Ohio voters give Strickland a split 44 – 42 percent job approval rating, down from 47 – 38 percent in April and 49 – 40 percent approval in March. They view him favorably by a 42 – 37 percent margin, with 19 percent saying they don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
Kasich is viewed favorably by 28 percent, unfavorably by 19 percent with 52 percent unable to make a judgment. An indication of how Kasich's lack of visibility is hurting his candidacy is that among white, evangelical Christians, one of the most GOP-leaning groups in the electorate, his favorability is 37 – 11 percent, as 52 percent of such voters don't know enough about him to have an opinion.
Ohio voters' mixed feelings about Strickland's job performance are reflected on similarly close numbers when voters are asked to compare the two candidates on key issues:
- Voters split on who would do a better job rebuilding the state economy, with 39 percent for Kasich and 38 percent for Strickland;
- Voters say 41 – 37 percent that Kasich would do a better job handling the state budget;
- Voters split on who they trust more to keep campaign promises, with 37 percent for
Strickland and 36 percent for Kasich.
Immigration
Ohio voters approve 48 – 28 percent of Arizona's immigration law. They say 72 – 22 percent that immigration reform should move in the direction of stricter enforcement rather than integrating illegal immigrants into American society. The new law will not lead to discrimination against Hispanics, voters say 43 – 40 percent. And by an overwhelming 79 – 10 percent they think an economic boycott of Arizona is a bad idea.
"Ohio voters like the Arizona approach to illegal immigration so much they would like to see a similar law passed by the State Legislature," said Brown.
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