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(WOIO) - Republican challenger John Kasich has a 54 – 37 percent lead over Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland in the race to be Ohio's next chief state executive, with much of his lead due to overwhelming support among independent voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released Thursday.
Kasich, a former congressman and Fox News host, holds even larger leads over Gov. Strickland when voters are asked which candidate would be better rebuilding the state's ailing economy and handling the state budget, the independent Quinnipiac University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. This first general election measure of likely voters in Ohio for this election cycle can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.
Kasich leads among men 60 – 31 percent and gets 47 percent of women voters to Strickland's 45 percent. Kasich leads among Republicans 91 – 4 percent and 55 – 32 percent among independent voters. Strickland leads 84 – 8 percent among Democrats.
"Independent voters often decide elections in Ohio and Kasich leads among the unaffiliated by 23 points. Not only that, but John Kasich does slightly better among Democrats than Strickland does among Republicans," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"There are almost seven weeks until Election Day, but Gov. Ted Strickland has his work cut out for him. One reason for the size of Kasich's lead is that Republicans and anti-Obama independents and Democrats seem more enthusiastic about voting this year."
"Ohio is not an island. Clearly Kasich is benefitting from the national anti-incumbent, anti-Democratic wave which seems to be sweeping the country," said Brown. "Ohio, which is the most important swing state in the country come presidential elections, is also a good marker for the off-year balloting. If Kasich were to lead a Republican sweep in Ohio, it would be a good indication that the Republican landslide many are predicting nationally might come to fruition."
The vast majority, 85 percent, of likely voters who choose a candidate say their mind is made up, while 14 percent say they might change their mind. Strickland support is a little softer as 19 percent of his backers might change their minds, compared to 11 percent of Kasich supporters.
Likely voters disapprove 59 – 34 percent of the job Strickland is doing and give him a negative 52 – 36 percent favorability rating. Kasich is viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 27 percent with 24 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
Voters say 55 – 32 percent that Kasich would do a better job than Strickland rebuilding the state's economy and 54 – 32 percent that he would do a better job handling the state budget.
"Kasich even has a 53 – 35 percent lead over Strickland when voters are asked who most shares their values, a measurement that tends to favor Democrats," said Brown. "Often Republicans win because voters see them as the more competent, but at this point Kasich is seen not only better able to do the job, but also more in tune with voters' values."
Ohio voters are among the most pessimistic in the country. Only 2 percent say they are "very satisfied" with the way things are going in Ohio and another 21 percent say they are "somewhat satisfied." A total of 77 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied."
"With more than three out of four voters unsatisfied with the way things are going in Ohio, it's no surprise that Gov. Strickland trails so badly. In bad times, governors and presidents pay the political price and since Barack Obama is not on the ballot this year, Ted Strickland is the focus of unhappy Ohioans," said Brown.
From September 9 – 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 730 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.
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