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(WOIO) - Republican John Kasich holds a 50 – 41%lead over Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland among likely voters in the race for Ohio governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday. This is down from a 54 – 37% Kasich lead September 16.
President Barack Obama's trips to Ohio to campaign for Democrats have not been helpful in attracting voters to Gov. Strickland, as only 14 percent of likely voters overall and just 6 percent of independent voters say the president's visits make them more likely to vote for the Democrat, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. In all, 33 percent of likely voters and 39 percent of independent likely voters say an Obama visit made it less likely they would vote for Strickland.
The two candidates are holding onto their party faithful, with Kasich getting 88 percent of Republicans and Strickland getting 86 percent of Democrats. But Kasich's 62 – 29 percent lead among independent voters is responsible for his overall lead. Among the likely electorate, Strickland is viewed unfavorably by 47 percent and favorably by 41 percent, while Kasich is viewed favorably by 46 percent and unfavorably by 30 percent.
Only 14 percent of likely voters think Ohio's economy is getting better, while 45 percent think it is getting worse and 40 percent think it is staying the same. Strickland leads 88 – 3 percent among those who think the economy is getting better and 55 – 38 percent among those who think it is the same, but Kasich leads 76 – 13 percent among those who think it is getting worse.
"Whether his fault or not, the pessimistic public mood about the economy is a problem for Gov. Ted Strickland and a plus for John Kasich," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"The governor's race has tightened but Kasich still has a healthy lead with four weeks until Election Day. If Gov. Strickland is to mount a comeback, he needs to make a major dent in Kasich's commanding lead among independent voters, who often make the difference in close elections in Ohio," Brown added.
"Not only does Strickland have to take all the undecided voters, he needs to peel away some of the soft Kasich voters as well if he is to win," said Brown. "Among likely voters, President Barack Obama is a negative for Gov. Strickland. Ohio likely voters disapprove 57 – 39 percent of the job President Obama is doing. If Obama had a 57 – 39 percent positive job approval instead, Strickland would have a lot better chance of winning re-election."
By 53 – 40 percent, likely voters disapprove of the job Strickland is doing in his first term as governor and disapprove of his handling of the economy 58 – 35 percent.
Asked what qualities are most important in a candidate for governor, only 11 percent say the "right experience" – presumably a quality they would ascribe to the incumbent. More than twice as many voters, 27 percent, say they want someone to bring change to Columbus. Another 25 percent cite honesty as the most important quality in a candidate and 33 percent want a candidate who shares their values.
"There clearly is an anti-incumbent mood in the country and in Ohio as well. That certainly doesn't help Strickland. In most years, experience in office is a major plus with voters. But not necessarily this year."
By 49 – 40 percent, likely voters say Kasich rather than Strickland most shares their values, and by 51 – 39 percent they think the Republican would do a better job than the Democrat in rebuilding the state's economy.
"Four weeks is a lifetime in political campaigns, but the governor needs to seize the momentum soon if he is to win a second term," said Brown.
From September 29 – October 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,025 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
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